Wake County Libertarian Party’s market share of voters, the percentage of registered Libertarians, increased by four percent in 2021. Although down from 7+  percent in 2020 and the smallest annual increase this century, the growth was still greater than that of unaffiliated (independent) voters (+3 percent), Democrats (-1 percent), and Republicans (-4 percent).

“Dissatisfaction with the establishment parties is not a new thing or a flavor-of-the-month,” noted WakeLP Chair Travis Groo. “In 2000, 79 percent of all Wake County voters were registered Democrat or Republican. Now their combined share of all voters is down to just 59 percent.

“That’s a significant decline, but what’s particularly notable is that the market share growth of independents has out-stripped both the Democrats and the Republicans every single year since 2001. We’re looking at a powerful long-term trend,” he added.

The total number of independent voters in Wake County (labeled “unaffiliated” by the North Carolina State Board of Elections) surpassed the number of registered Republicans in 2012 and has exceeded the total number of Democrats since 2019. 

Statewide, there are still more Democrats than independents—but only just barely—2,495,560 to 2,469,002 at the end of 2021. Presuming the long-term trend extends into 2022, there will almost certainly be more independent voters in North Carolina than Democrats or Republicans by election day.

More Than a Drop in the Bucket

“There are now more than 6,000 registered Libertarian voters in Wake, which is still fewer than 1 percent of all registered voters,” said Groo, “But our candidates consistently get two-to-six times that many votes. That’s not enough to win elections outright, but it’s way more than just a drop in the bucket.

“There are potentially enough voters who want to keep government out of their bedrooms and wallets in close races to swing the outcome.”

WakeLP ran 34 candidates for state legislature in the past decade. In six of those contests, the Libertarian candidate got more votes than the difference between their two establishment party opponents. In another seven of those races, the winner got just 50 or 51 percent.

“We can’t yet afford to do extensive polling,” added Groo, “but our candidates talk to a lot of voters who tell us that they agree with us on the issues but are hesitant to vote Libertarian because they don’t think we can win. Taking that into account, there is likely more than two to six percent of the electorate for whom libertarian issues are important. Possibly considerably more.”

A Force to be Reckoned With

“There are other ways to measure WakeLP growth besides voter registrations,” added Groo. “In 2020, we set new all-time records for money raised and spent on the campaigns, yard signs distributed, and early voting site and Election Day volunteers deployed. And last year, our Wake County sheriff candidates forum drew nine of the ten announced candidates, five Republicans, and four Democrats, to answer questions posed by a Libertarian moderator.”

Groo referred to WakeLP’s “The People Who Would Be Sheriff” meetup event last September. More than 100 attended, and dozens watched online. No Libertarian has announced for that office, but the candidates attending clearly believed Libertarians were a group of voters worth their time.

“In 2022, we are hoping to field a full slate of General Assembly candidates for the first time in 20 years,” said Groo. “Going forward, we expect to be more active in county and municipal elections.

“However it plays out, WakeLP’s become a force to be reckoned with, and I don’t see that changing any time soon.”

Wake Parties Market Share Change

*Libertarian Party of North Carolina was disestablished as a recognized political party in 2005 after neither their 2004 Presidential nor gubernatorial candidate received enough votes to qualify them. The NCSBE stopped accepting new Libertarian voter registrations, and all but 18 of the 1,629 existing registered Libertarians in Wake County were converted to unaffiliated in 2005. Then those last 18 were converted in 2006. The LPNC petitioned for ballot access and regained it in 2008.